Polls, Damn polls and statistics

One poll comes out. PLP ahead.
Another poll comes out. UBP ahead.
Each side claims the other poll is flawed.
Lather, rinse, repeat.

This election in Bermuda is going to be close on the basis of percentage of votes. Shouldn't be greater than say a 45-55% ratio, not counting the independents (wow that ABC thing sure worked out, didn't it?).

But because of the nature of our electoral system we could see the composition of the house being anywhere between 29-7 to 7-29 but more likely something in the middle. It's really about the constituency-by-constituency battles more than anything, which these polls aren't really able to achieve, no fault of their own. And of course, the large number of first-time eligible voters, and which way will they turn. I don't think anybody can take their seat for granted.

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